mySurvival.uk


NATURE → Cosmic Hazards - Asteroid Impact


Stephen Hawkings in his book Brief Answers to Big Questions (2018) considered that that an asterod collision was the biggest external threat to our planet and indeed to our survival.



Background


Asteroids are irregulary shaped rocky bodies orbiting in space, ranging in size from 1 meter to several hundred meters in diameter. A large number orbit our sun, mainly concentrated in a belt extending between Mars and Jupiter, When asteroids collide, they are thrown out of orbit and may head earthwise. Collision also results in smaller fragments breaking off. These fragments are called meteoroids.


Meteoroids, because of their small size, generally less than 1 meter in diameter, burn up (vapourize) if they enter earth's atmosphere and cause little damage. Meteoroids that are not fully vapourized by our atmosphere hit the earth's surface as meteorites. Large asteroids (greater than 20 meters in diameter) colliding with the earth, however, can have devestating effects. The danger comes not only from their size, but also their speed of approach, approximately 12 to 30 km/sec, which can produce massive shock waves when asteroids enter and break up in out atmosphere. Large asteroids therefore pose two major risks, the impact itself and the shockwaves from atmospheric explosion (airburst).



Asteroid Impact

Asteroid impact!

Source:



Barringer Meteor Crater, Arizona, USA

Barringer Impact Meteor Crater, Arizona, USA

Source: The Planetary Society: https://www.planetary.org


Past Asteroid Collisions


Asteroids regularly impact every planet in our solar system including our earth. If you look at our Moon you will see hundreds of well preserved impact craters but on earth impact craters are rarely visible because of ongoing land formation, tectonic movement, our oceans and weathering and erosion. They are there however, as asteroid impact with our earth is frquent, but they need to be discovered geologically. Most impacts are of relatively small size and of little significance, but many large extinction level impacts have also occured in the past. Geologically, one of the most significant recognised massive impacts was the Chicxulub Meteor, 66 million years ago, near the Yukatan Peninsula, Mexico, which is believed to have led to a massive worldwide tsunami and the extiction of land based dinosaurs.


More recent asteroid impacts have been mainly airbursts (superbolides) including the Chelyabinsk Meteor (2013)and the Tunguska Event (1908), both in Russia. The shock waves resulting from these impacts caused significant damage. Althoug only of small size (estimated 17 meters in diameter) it is believed that the airburst from the Chelyabinsk meteor (2013) alone was equivalent to 530 kilotons of TNT exploding, roughly the strength of 30 Hiroshima bombs. If this impact had been over a populated area there would have been more significant damage and many deaths.



Known asteroid impacts

World map of known Asteroid impacts

Source: Wikipedia



Localised damage from the Chelyabinsk Meteor, Chelyabinsk, Russia 2013

Localised damage from the Chelyabinsk Meteor, Chelyabinsk, Russia 2013

Source: Meteorite Recon


Conclusions


The European Space Agency (ESA) maintains a list of asteroids that have a non zero probability of impact with our earth. As of March 2024, there are currently 1600 asteroids on this list. Two of these are marked as of special interest: 101955Bennu, 484 meters in diameter, that could possibily impact with earth in 2182; and 290751050DA, 1300 meters in diameter, scheduled for impact in around 856 years (2880).


Very large asteroid impact presents a significant risk to survival but luckily non of the currently known larger asteroids are scheduled for arrival for at least 100 years. Work is also underway into means of deflecting asteroids should they present a serious risk of collision with our earth. For now then, I don't think we should worry too much, or should we?



References



The European Space Agency risk list: https://neo.ssa.esa.int/risk-list

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event

https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/National-Near-Earth-Object-Preparedness-Strategy-and-Action-Plan-23-pages-1MB.pdf

Chelyabinsk meteor explosion a ‘wake-up call’, scientists warn:https://theconversation.com/chelyabinsk-meteor-explosion-a-wake-up-call-scientists-warn-19874