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Risks → War → Nuclear War Detonation Modelling → NUKEMAP - Try it Yourself


Use NUKEMAP to explode a nuclear bomb on potential target near you!



Yes, pick a possible target close to where you live and detonate a nuclear explosion to see how likely you are to survive. Myself, I live in a small town in West Yorkshire called Holmfirth (best known as the location of the TV comedy classic, Last of the Summer Wine). My nearest large town is Huddersfield. Quite honestly I can see no reason why any attacking power might want to destroy Huddersfield as it has no significant industry or any military connections. Nearby Leeds or Manchester would be more likely targets. However, I have detonated a W-87 300 kiloton MIRV (current US arsenal) over the centre of Huddersfield and present the results below:



Holmfirth survives major destruction from a 300 kiloton air-burst nuclear explosion over Huddersfield

Holmfirth survives major destruction from a 300 kiloton air-burst nuclear explosion over Huddersfield
but will still suffer light damage as it falls well within the explosion's 1 psi overpressure contour.

Source: NUKEMAP



One of the main issues, living in Holmfirth, is that there are two major communication towers close by, Holme Moss and Emley Moor. Holme Moss, located 6.5 km to the the south-west of Holmfirth, is a 228 m high VHF transmitter serving West Yorkshire, Derbyshire and Greater Manchester but who's transmissions can reach as far south as Birmingham and as far north as Scotland. Emley Moor, located 9.5 km to the north-east, is a 319 m high concrete telecomunications tower. Both these two structures might be potential targets for tactical nuclear weapons in any major nuclear exchange.


The closest of these two structures to Holmfirth is Holme Moss. I have dentonated a 100 kiloton MIRV, common in both US and UK SLBM arsenals, at this location (air burst) and thankfully Holmfirth still only falls within the light damage radius (1 psi overpressure) so we might have a good chance of surviving such an attack!



Holmfirth survives major destruction from a 100 kiloton air-burst nuclear explosion over Holme Moss

Holmfirth survives major destruction from a 100 kiloton air-burst nuclear explosion over Holme Moss
but will still suffer light damage as it still falls well within the explosion's 1 psi overpressure contour.

Source: NUKEMAP



For a surface burst of a 100 kiloton weapon at this same location, Holmfirth does even better as the town is located well to the north of the 1 psi over pressure contour. Fallout from this detonation, however might be an issue, but prevailing winds are generally westerly so fallout should pass without covering Holmfirth.



Holmfirth survives major destruction from a 100 kiloton surface-burst nuclear explosion over Holme Moss.

Holmfirth survives major destruction from a 100 kiloton surface-burst nuclear explosion over Holme Moss.
Fallout will also miss the town!

Source: NUKEMAP



The nightmare scenario for Holmfirth, however, is is its closeness to the major cities of Manchester (located approximately 31.5 km to the west) and Leeds (located approximately 30 km to the north-east). Both cities would be obvious targets in a nuclear war and, because of their importance as commercial and financial centers, would be heavily bombarded. To model the effects on Holmfirth from a substantial attack I have detonated a 9 megaton airburst over the centres of both cities (9 megatons is the highest rated warhead in the USA ICBM arsenal). The results are shown below:



9 megaton air burst detonation over the centres of Manchester and Leeds

9 megaton air burst detonation over the centres of Manchester and Leeds
Holmfirth is just on the edge of the thermal, 3rd degree burn contours and well within the light blast damage contours for both detonations.
This is not great but possibly survivable




Conclusions


NUKEMAP is an excellent tool and I do recommend that you model some potential detonations around where you live. If things look really bad perhaps you should consider a move to a safer area. Holmfirth, where I live, will not be amune from serious effects but these effects seem to be within levels that are survivable.




References


Nukemap by Alex Wellerstein. See: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/






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